Combining “people-centered” with narratives of potential “future-world” evolutions towards transformative scenario design and the operationalization of energy citizenship

Introduction

Since the early 2000s scholars have been increasingly recognizing the limitations of traditional top-down approaches to climate and energy policy, which fail to account for the social and cultural dimensions of energy use and production. In this context, the concept of energy citizenship has emerged and gained considerable attention in recent years due to its potential to bridge the gap between energy transition policies and social participation, by emphasizing the significance of participatory and democratic processes in relevant decision-making processes.

Discourse surrounding energy matters has predominantly centered on technical and economic considerations, often overlooking discussions on inclusive and democraticgovernance. This is also reflected in contemporary energy modelling practices and scenario-based research, where focus is primarily placed on the technological optimization and economic implications of the energy transition, often disregarding social and environmental aspects, and treating them as external narratives, only to be considered “on-top” of modelling results, serving merely as a perspective for discussing scenarios and narratives.

Underrepresentation of such elements combined with disproportionate emphasis on technoeconomic factors can lead to oversimplifiedscenarios that fail to inform policymakers about the multiple dimensions crucial for achieving a sustainable and inclusive energy transition. In this respect, there is a growing body of research seeking ways to integrate social sciences into scenario-based exploration.

To this end, in ENCLUDE, we developed and applied a novel framework for transformative scenario design based on social innovations of energy citizenship and potential evolutions of the future, which encompasses a broad spectrum of uncertainties and embraces the depth of complexity of the energy landscape, at the local, the regional, the national, or the transnational level. The developed framework does not only consider regulatory influences and technological advancements, but also delves into the social, cultural, and behavioral manifestations of energy citizenship, envisioning energy futures that go beyond the comfort zone of current scenario-based research and examine out-of-ordinary extremes.

To build the scenario design framework, we started with extensive desk research into various patterns andtrends ofenergy citizenship. This allowed us to capture and map the full range of citizen involvement in the energy transition. Considering stakeholders’ insights, we then grouped patterns and trends into thematic storylines that highlight both individual and collective actions.

Transformative scenario design should outline the transition to a decarbonized energy system while accounting for potential challenges and vulnerabilities humanity might face. To do this, we broadened the concept of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to capture how various types of “environments” may influence the ways citizens engage in the energy transition.

This structured framework essentially aims to aid the design of transition scenarios towards the operationalization and the holistic understanding of the decarbonization potential of energy citizenship, also accounting for the uncertainty and the dynamic character of events surrounding the potential evolution of the future. The novelty of this work lies in the flexibility that the developed framework provides to potential users towards exploring “what if” scenarios of the decarbonization potential:

1. attributed to individuals’ decision-making, while keeping constant potential future evolutions of the surrounding environment,

2. attributed to different changes of the surrounding environment, as governmental and societal decisions, etc., while keeping constant individuals’ decisions and choices, isolating future conditions’ potential for climate change mitigation, and

3. attributed to variance in bothindividuals’ decisions andchoices andsurrounding environment’s conditions, enabling deep exploratory assessments of different potential futures, also accounting for future uncertainties and unexpected events.

More details about the ENCLUDE scenario space and its use in the project’s modeling applications can be found in Deliverable 5.2: Development of decarbonization pathways based on social innovations of energy citizenship, Deliverable 5.3: Report on the decarbonization impact of energy citizenship at the local level, and Deliverable 5.4: Report on the decarbonization potential of energy citizenship at the national and the EU levels.

Research questions

What are the patterns and trends through which energy citizenship is expressed?

The concept of energy citizenship, as an emergent concept itself, remains undertheorized and the boundaries surrounding it are not strictly defined. Varying manifestations of energy citizenship have emerged (and continue to emerge) within the energy domain, influenced and shaped by the sociopolitical, economic, and cultural specificities found in particular cases. To advance the research surrounding energy citizenship with an aim to operationalize the concept, we identified the following set of key patterns and trends:

“People-centered” storylines based on social innovations of energy citizenship?

Aiming to bring (energy) citizens at the core of the modeling exercises, “people-centered” storylines were developed, acting as the driving narratives of the simulations. These are a set of qualitative descriptions of the different citizen-specific manifestations- either at the individual or collective level- of energy citizenship.

Each “people-centered” storyline focuses on a specific manifestation of energy citizenship, helping to structure and streamline the modeling process. By centering on individual storylines, modelers can examine the decarbonization impacts on various scales, while also having the flexibility to combine multiple storylines to assess how different forms of citizen engagement interact within the energy system. For instance, a modeling exercise might explore how increased public involvement in climate issues (e.g., political activities) could lead to stronger government action and policy measures that support prosumerism (e.g., active participation in the energy market).

Additionally, storylines make the design of modeling exercises more accessible and engaging for stakeholders, policymakers, and non-experts. Their qualitative nature not only facilitates the incorporation of stakeholder feedback but also helps to effectively communicate the complex assumptions underpinning the modeling exercises, as well as their limitations. Moreover, storylines promote interdisciplinary collaboration by fostering communication between climate researchers, modelers, and experts from a variety of fields such as economics, policy, sociology, and technology. This interdisciplinary approach allows diverse insights to be integrated into a unified and comprehensive framework.

Individual expressions
	This storyline builds upon the concept of an increasingly decentralized energy system e.g., with higher rates of prosumerism. Citizens are thought to increasingly become individual owners, thus consuming their own electricity, and playing a facilitating and supportive role in driving the energy transition. Within this storyline, various co-benefits can be explored such as the resulting percentage of the simulated population’s access to energy and self-sufficiency.
	A storyline centered around the daily habits of citizens, and how incremental changes in everyday life can have an impact on the decarbonization of the energy system. In this storyline, people are becoming increasingly aware of the way their norms and culture directly correlate with their energy behavior and influence the level of their energy consumption. They start to reconsider aspects of their daily life such as consumption patterns, diet, and means of transportation.
Collective expressions
	A storyline focused on the concept of collective actions of citizens in the energy system. Citizens, united by common environmental concerns and a strong sense of community are coming together and forming either energy communities or other various collective energy initiatives (CEIs), such as energy collectives and co-operatives, with a view to optimizing the usage of local resources and minimizing energy waste by engaging in communal activities to collectively address climate issues.
	A storyline based on political activism surrounding energy and participation in social movements and civil society initiatives advancing democratic visions of energy transition. These processes enhance the active role of citizens by considering their perspectives and giving them the opportunity to voice their opinions on matters that ultimately affect their own lives, thus exploring co-benefits such as energy justice and energy democracy, which are inherently abstract.

What are the “future-world”narratives?

The “future-world” narratives are a set of qualitative descriptions of potential future evolutions of the environments surrounding the different manifestations of energy citizenship, e.g., society, geopolitical developments, regulatory environment. Different future developments can result in fundamentally different states of human society, when considering the capability to mitigate and/ or adapt to climate change. The “future-world” narratives are utilized to provide a range of contexts to explore such effects, both positive and negative, and to assess the overall implications of climate change.

These narratives may consider a broad spectrum of variables that influence decarbonization efforts at the local, national, or European levels. By capturing a range of possible futures, they help stakeholders envision how different factors may interact to shape energy systems and inform the development of strategies for sustainability. These factors can span various fields, each playing a significant role in determining the success of decarbonization efforts and correlated to specific parameters that can be modeled within energy system models:

• Demographic Shifts: Population growth rates, migration trends, urbanization rates, age distribution, etc.

• Human Development &Social Equity: Energy access, income inequality, education levels, etc.

• Economic Evolution &Lifestyle Changes: GDP growth, income distribution, digital economy adoption, mobility patterns, etc.

• Policies, Governance &Institutions: Carbon pricing schemes, international climate agreements, renewable energy mandates, etc.

• Technological Innovation &Adoption: Adoption rates and advances in renewables, smart grid penetration, storage capacity, etc.

• Environmental &Natural Resources: Resource availability, climate change impacts, biodiversity preservation, land use, etc.

• Global Geopolitics &Energy Security: Energy resource distribution, trade alliances, geopolitical tensions, energy supply chains, etc.

• Behavioral Change &Public Engagement: Public perception of climate change, technology adoption, societal shifts in energy behavior, etc.

• Infrastructure &Urbanization: Grid modernization, electrification of transport, smart city development, urban planning, etc.

• Global &Local Energy Markets: Energy pricing, deregulation policies, decentralized energy trading, market liberalization, etc.

The selection of fields and respective parameters can vary depending on the modeling scope, specific objectives and the modeling framework used. Their value range may also vary significantly based on the “future-world” narrative analyzed, ranging from best-case to worst-case, as well as business-as-usual scenarios, thus allowing for a more comprehensive exploration of possible futures.

	Familiar World A baseline narrative (business-as-usual), in which the world evolves maintaining familiar trends with minimal to no change in the current status quo. The world is moving in a direction where social, economic, and technological trends do not differ substantially from historical patterns. Institutions and organizations exhibit slow progress towards sustainable development goals, resulting in persistent income disparities among nations. Environmental systems see modest advancements but are characterized by an overall state of degradation. The scenario portrays a world where incremental changes coexist with persistent challenges, which raise questions about the sustainability of gradual progress in the face of pressing global issues. “Familiar World” is mainly utilized to establish a reference point to assess not only the decarbonization potential, but also other co-benefits of energy citizenship.
	Unified World In this narrative, the world undergoes a shift towards unity and inclusiveness. Institutions and organizations prioritize citizens as the driving force behind the energy transition. This evolution unfolds with a remarkable emphasis on human well-being, transcending the traditional focus on economic growth. Consumption patterns align with sustainability goals, promoting low material growth and minimizing resource and energy intensity. This narrative portrays a society in which governments and nations around the EU, but also at the global level, unite against climate change, considering it as the biggest crisis of our age. Policymaking processes promote acceleration of decarbonization through transnational collaboration and investments in green solutions as soon as possible. “Unified World” envisions a harmonious balance between societal progress and environmental preservation, promoting a future where the interconnectedness of nations becomes a driving force for positive change.
	Fragmented World A potential future evolution of undesired societies, which increasingly resemble a “dystopia” in the sense of extreme, or even exaggerated worst-case scenarios, e.g., rise of totalitarian regimes, social inequalities intensify, increased control over citizens through the usage of propaganda, censoring of information or denial of free thought, gradual loss of individuality, enforcement of conformity, heightened individualism and anti-collectivism, etc. Global dynamics take an unfavorable turn as nations prioritize domestic concerns and regional interests over global collaboration. Policies increasingly focus on national and regional security, diverting attention and resources from broader sustainable development goals. Educational and technological investments decline, hindering progress. “Fragmented World” pictures slower development and limited environmental concern, creating obstacles for sustainability. Regional conflicts, rivalry and competitiveness overshadow global unity against climate-related challenges, creating a narrative of missed opportunities and delayed progress.

The ENCLUDE scenario space

A broad and balanced scenario space is needed in order to implement scenario-based research effectively. By crafting diverse sets of storylines and narratives that encompass varying degrees of climate- and energy-related actions, technological advancements, societal shifts, and behavior adoption rates, a better coverage of future possibilities is attained. This offers a nuanced perspective on what the future may hold and supports not only preparing for potential challenges, but also illuminating pathways toward sustainable and resilient solutions.

On the contrary, creating a limited and ill-defined scenario space may lead to failing to anticipate certain developments, or underestimating the complexities of societal transitions which in turn can result in the implementation of insufficient or misguided policies and biased decision-making. For instance, an overly optimistic scenario that neglects the challenges of transitioning to a renewable energy-based system and assumes rapid global cooperation without accounting for geopolitical challenges could result in delayed or ineffective policy responses. By anchoring decisions solely on best-case scenarios, a misleading perception of security and a failure to adequately prepare for contingencies can be created. Similarly, an excessively conservative scenario space- one that underestimates the pace of technological advancements, policy changes, or societal shifts- can stifle innovation and hinder progress.

If policymakers are on the side of caution, overly conservative scenario space may perpetuate reliance on outdated technologies and impede the transition to more sustainable practices. For example, envisioning a future where the status quo prevails without accounting for breakthroughs in renewable energy or shifts in citizens’ behavior might discourage investments in cutting-edge technologies and sustainable energy sources. This can lead to missed opportunities for transformative change and result in inadequate preparations for a rapidly evolving climate landscape.

All things considered, in both cases, the potential ripple effects of oversights and misjudges extend to economic repercussions, social disruptions, and exacerbation of climate-related vulnerabilities. It is imperative, thus, to design a scenario space which encompasses a broad spectrum of possible futures, acknowledging uncertainties and embracing the depth of complexity of the European landscape, at the local, the national, and the transnational level.

Considering these insights, we present the final ENCLUDE scenario space, which, applied to specific case studies, can support the development of real-life decarbonization pathways based on social innovations of energy citizenship.

The ENCLUDE modeling ensemble

Given the broadness of the “people-centered” storylines, a diversity of modeling tools is required to capture the impact of the different manifestations of energy citizenship under study. For example, active participation in the energy market, or political activism would need different modeling tools. In addition, expressions of energy citizenship can be traced at a multitude of scales, e.g., at the individual, community, national or international level. As a result, a model that deals with the required resolution would be needed. Furthermore, certain aspects of energy citizenship would call for the employment of more than one model. In such cases, we developed several interface protocols to facilitate the soft linkage of the models, where necessary, and upscale results at the local level to the national level, were designed, concerning data transfer and model communication and interoperability.

The models comprising the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble and used in the different project’s applications span a range of architectural approaches and modeling scopes: